FUTURE TAIWAN-ASEAN RELATIONSHIP, BLESSING OR DISASTER : THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

By. Muhammad Nurjihadi, S.P
Post Graduate Student of Regional and Rural Development Planning Sciences,
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia


Political status of Taiwan was not clear until now. People’s Republic of China claimed that Taiwan is one of those regions. But in the other side, Taiwan claimed that they are an independent country. Because of China’s economic performance, most countries in the world give their support to China about this conflict. Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) are also give their support to China. More than a support, ASEAN and China make a good relationship in economic with China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Moreover, ASEAN also make a good relationship with some East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea. They call it ASEAN+3. This relationship make Taiwan become a marginalized country in the region.

More than marginalized, ASEAN bilateral relationship with other countries in the region make Taiwan suffered economic losses because of increasing transaction cost for accessing international market. This condition encourages Taiwan to build good relationship with ASEAN also. But China always obscured Taiwan’s effort. Many people or scientists believe that ASEAN-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement (ATFTA) will be realized in future. If this relationship will become true, how can this relationship influencing political, economic and social condition in both. Is it will be a blessing for both or exactly it will be a disaster.

Base on theoretical analysis, we make some simulation to show what will be happen if the relationship between ASEAN and Taiwan realized. First simulation is that the relationship will be a good influence for both. Minimization of economic barrier will increase economic interaction between Taiwan and ASEAN. So it will increase investment value from Taiwan in ASEAN and make Taiwan easy to access international market, especially in the region. The second simulation is the relationship will make some problem like political problem (pressuring from china for example, it will increase political tension in the region), economic problem like backwash effect of the relationship, it will make ASEAN suffered economic losses because of Taiwan exploitation in ASEAN resources. So, the relationship between Taiwan and ASEAN in the future is probably create a positive influence (blessing) or probably also create a negative influence (disaster).